Visualizzazione post con etichetta Italy. Mostra tutti i post
Visualizzazione post con etichetta Italy. Mostra tutti i post

mercoledì 23 novembre 2011

Euro Crisis: transfer of sovereignty or default?

The Euro Union was born without the necessary economic, legislative and executive power given by the countries that support it. 

The Parliament and European institutions are empty. Speculative attacks are directed against a currency that is not representative of a uniform situation. It is not an expression of a Confederation, like the U.S. or Switzerland. There is no certainty that the weaker Countries, with high debt and poor growth, have the financial Community means to support them adequately. In the past years, every Country was not able to stay within the Stability Pacts, there was laxity and failure to punish States who most have wasted resources. The ECB can not act as lender of last resort, that means it can not possibly print money or devalue it, to lighten the positions of debtor Countries, as could instead do the FED. There is also no possibility to control and act directly on the PIIGS budeget under attack. Italy has been the guinea-pig and have raised controversy for the ECB letter to our former government, shouting at meddling of EU into national affairs. Then the government lost its majority and had to resign and everyone understood that if Italy fails, there would be problems for others, including Germany, and the implosion of the Euro. If there is not a joint regulation how could exist a single currency? Everyone will have to sacrifice something to save the Union. The adoption of Eurobonds in partial or total replacement of the sigle nations bonds (to an unfavorable interest rate for Germany but favorable for all other coutries)would be the price that Germans would have to pay to avoid Eurozone failure (and their well!: with a return to mark at the highest rate there would be a vertical fall of German exports to the Eurozone, one of the most important voice of the growth of these years).Chancellor Mrs.Merkel will be able to convince her voters to drink this bitter cup perhaps only at one condition: if at the same time Europe will adopt common laws in theme of fiscal harmony and strictness for the pubblic budgets among the Euro Countries, giving to European Uninon the effective power of supranational control with possible penalties on budgets of the States through a series of constraints that countries defaulting could not escape. It is clear that Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland etc.. are not already in a strong position: they can only choose between a default or an increasing transfer of sovereignty. This last is the only chance left to keep Europe going collectively and democratically regulated. This should not be seen as a punitive intent in advance but as a community effort in the interest of all.It is much better then a suspension from Euro that someone fears: it irreparably harm anyone who should be subjected to. In this case Italian citizens will come out very impoverished, even and especially in their private wealth, one of the economic italian strengths universally recognized. It is hoped that new Italian PM Mr.Monti,in mission Brussels and Strasbourg this week, could give a valuable contribution to take the less painful path for everyone. The sad thing is that Italian political parties do not openly support the "dirty job" that Monti government should do in his next policy moves, just because of their past inability and reluctance in doing surgically cuts to the many privileges present at all levels into Public Administration and in fighting tax evasion and undeclared work. This will be the only way to not frustrate any new request of taxes to Italian people.

Comment sent to Wall Street Journal 11-24th-2011

martedì 15 novembre 2011

Tomorrow at 11 new PM Monti will show the list of ministers and his program

is not only a competent and style Professor:is a politician too with an high sense of institutions and determined.

OK ,reached by all political forces, for the birth of the new government, except Lega Nord party did not occur in the consultations. This party is perched on fantastic positions to split the country, forgetting that he ruled for three years on majority without doing anything (remember what mr Calderoli did as minister of the simplification of laws? Nothing. Or did Lega Nord a federal system equitable and effective for everyone in Italy? No). However it is better a declared oppostion as Lega Nord said than of an unknown hidden ooposition inside this big coalition of majority. Doubts about the political presence in the government: Gianni Letta for the PdL and Giuliano Amato for the Democratic Party. It seems that politicians attacks Monti for having usurped them a role, to my way of seeing for their evident failure and the loss of parts from the ex former majority, but if they will not participate directly in the new Government,they will demonstrate that while the technical government(not made by politicians elected) is working for Italy, politicians will think only to fight each other and dissociate themselves from the government that officially say to support. Now the house burns. Markets are stressed and it takes determination to solve fairly, and with the consistency of all social and political forces, the country's long-standing problems, ending with a bipolar conflict of the recent past, with the Berlusconi government and those who opposed it. We are waiting for the new program.
Meanwhile, the crisis is spreading: Italian-bond/German-bund spread is again above 500points ,guys of "Occupy WallStreet" in US were cleared from Zuccotti Park in NYC and from other cities of the US.

giovedì 10 novembre 2011

The situation in Italy: a new government by excellent economist Mario Monti is the only way possible to give Italy a chance


Berlusconi resigned slowly.When everybody understood that his vain government is linked to a major damn for Italy and its debt on the rate of Italian bond market always higher and higher.
Now it's up to the Parliament. Will it be able to listen the President of Repubblic Napolitano? He is looking for a big coalition to support Mario Monti as President of an "Emrgency Government" to give stability and reform to Italy after Berlusconi-storm with a big coalition.The left Democratic Party and Center Democratic Party are agree from long time . The ex majority (Pdl the Berlusconi Party and Lega nord) are not so sure but knows how near is the brink for Italy. The ex comunist party lives "in Mars" but fortunatly is a little Party and is not agree to a real liberal Monti government.
There is no time to loose in preparing elections with a non adequate electoral system, to reform too. There is no time to an electoral campaign during an attack against Italy, a Country that put at risk all the Eurozone because Berlusconi did'nt cut political budget cuts , waste of pubblic administration and did not do antitrust actions (Mediaset shares,the company of Berlusconi lost a lot of value at the same time he decided to stop his political positions), anti-corruption actions, welfare-actions to protect temporary job positions and did not stimulate economic growth at the same time.
Who could do all this things now as soon as possible as EU ask vigorously? Mario Monti (ex EU commissioner and excellent, stimated and well known in the world economist) said: "There is a huge hard work to do for Italy to exit from crisis". Probably he could be the next Premier of the government, only if all the parties from left to right in parliament will set above the good for Italy (and Europe) instead of particular interests and this is not predictable, is the real battle to win, indeeed. The risk is linked to the high irresponsability the political class, present in these days in all parties, incapable to find a limited but keen program for Italy till 2013 ferrying the Country to new elections with a new system.

Comment sent to THE ECONOMIST nov10th 2011 
and WALL STREET JOURNAL nov 11th 2011